Can’t wait to hear these stats get brought up during every lull in commentary for the next two months.
Time for a 10x10
Eventually they're just going to take "inside a phonebooth" literally
I'd like to see this data controlled for different eras of the ufc
if the 25 footer has only been used in certain era's it could skew the results
And weight class. Pretty sure they tried to keep the fats out of the 25er for a while
How about the cage loses 5 ft between rounds! 5th round of a fight would be a 10ft cage lmao! No more decisions, unless by freak accident.
Anybody got stats on the differences in fouls between the 2? I'd be curious if there are more eye pokes or nut shots in the 25.
I know you’re joking but this actually sounds dope lol
5th round? Okay fight in an elevator. Fuck a decision.
Keep giving Holloway the small Octagon
Lol - dude probably skewed the significant strikes data with 1 fight.
A 12% difference in decisions is gigantic
I wonder if these percentages hold up at a smilie amount of fights.
I’d like to see the statistics of the larger octagon broken up so the number of fights are the same as the smaller octagon, and compare the stats as time went by. I wonder if the finish rate has gradually always gone up as the sport and skills evolved
It’s actually been the opposite finishing rate (especially by submission) has gone down over time as the fighters have become more technical. Considering the majority of the small cage fights are probably from the past year because of the apex it’s even more impressive
Billy Joe Saunders: "Show this to Canelo!"
The reason the UFC would never shrink the 'gon size permanently is because they want space for more advertising
It really doesn't feel like a ufc event without a giant MANSCAPED logo in the octagon
I'd like to also see the stats for the 174 fights prior to the size being changed as well.
I wonder if the older stats could be skewing the data. UFC fighting styles have changed over the years.
Smaller cage sure worked against Stipe 2nd time
I'm not sure how others feel about this, but I'd like the size to be uniform for all events. Making fighters have to train for larger or smaller octagons depending on venue introduces a chaos factor that has a definite influence on how fights play out.
Yeah but what percentage of those 1,398 fights for 30ft vs 174 fights for 25ft were fights that max halloway preformed in?
I think the UFC intentionally used the 25 foot Octagon for Miocic v Ngannou.
And to think Rogan wanted them to fight on basketball courts where they had the most amount of room to work with, every fight would've been an Izzy Yoel if that happened
bruh people would just be playing tag
Dang that’s pretty interesting, I mean it’s expected but 13% raise in fights finished is pretty impressive.
Yeah that means there was like a 25% increase in the finishing rate. I wouldn't have expected such a big difference
I'd like to see this broken down by weight class.
So the statistics to check for whether there is a difference between the pattern of fight finishes between the 30-foot and 25-foot Octagon is a [chi-square test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson%27s_chi-squared_test) with a [Cramer's V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cram%C3%A9r%27s_V) analysis for a measure of effect size. The chi-square tells us whether there is a difference between the 30-foot and 25-foot octagon in terms of fight finishes, and Cramer's V tells us how large of the difference is in the pattern of fight finishes between the 30-foot and 25-foot octagon.
Because the UFC provided the total number of fights between the two octagons, I was able to calculate the raw counts needed for both analyses. The screenshot of the analyses are [here](https://imgur.com/gallery/HTpM1dc). In short, the pattern of fight finishes is different between the 30-foot and 25-foot octagon (chi-square = 10.32, degrees of freedom or *DF* = 2, *p* = .005). KOs or TKOs are relatively consistent between the two sizes, but there are more submissions and less decisions in the 25-foot octagon vs. the 30-foot octagon. With that said, Cramer's *V* is .08, which is in the range of low to no associations between Octagon size and fight finish.
What does this mean to me? There is likely a difference in fight finishes between the 30-foot and 25-foot Octagon, but the difference is small at best. Octagon size may not matter as much as other incentives (e.g., being in the [contender series](https://www.actionnetwork.com/mma/the-ufcs-declining-finish-rate-and-using-the-octagon-size-to-handicap-fights), fight strategy, or [changes in focus during the pandemic](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/hard-to-focus-with-pandemic/2021/03/12/fb0102c6-715e-11eb-93be-c10813e358a2_story.html)). I would prepare as is with some more focus for submission potential than average, but I wouldn't prepare vastly differently than before.
thank for the analysis nerd, now go kick rocks before i throw you through a glass door
but seriously thanks, was looking for someone who understood stats because I don't
I personally really don't like having two different sized octagons. Just keep it consistent IMO. I probably prefer the bigger one because I think the cage plays less of a factor.
Small Octagon Crew
But is that actually statistically significant? The first sentence they say it's not analyzed but the second sentence they say it's reasonable to assume?
I work with stats and from the eye test I’d say it would either be statistically significant or pretty close to it. I’d need the underlying datasets to actually confirm. I’d also like to see the stats for the last 174 30 ft octagon fights cause the ufc has changed a lot over the years.
On the other side of things, there could’ve been other factors which led to the increase. The matchmaking may have been more lopsided due to Covid, proportions of fights in each weight class may be different, fighters hearing their coaches better, etc.
Overall I’d say it’s reasonable to conclude fighters should be more conditioned in 25ft octagons. It could be the size, the coaches, or something else; but whatever it is they should prepare for it.
Gotta wonder if the lack of fans and increased interaction between fighters and coach effect these stats at all as well but very interesting
They should have a twin-size bed that both fighters must "wrestle" on.
WHY IS THERE NO HYPHEN FOR THE LAST LINE?!
I mean, this was why WEC was so great 12 years ago. It took them this long to figure that out??
Statistics prove the 20x20 squared circle is superior, again confirming pro wrestling is the superior combat sport
Nice, I’d like to see some similar stats comparing crowd vs. no crowd
*UFC statisticians noticed a 900% increase in Ric Flair wooing and booing of grappling during events with crowds compared to those with no crowds*
Tiny Octagons forever please
Dana is physically constructing a miniature Octagon as we speak
Not gonna lie I'd prefer 25 foot to be the standard
If they decide to keep them I'm not sure how I feel about the UFC making a change that ends in more damage for their fighters for the sake of more fun fights.
But at the same time damn this last year was full of incredible fights
You could argue a 8% increase in submissions is better for fighters health.
Does it say what the sample size they were using for the small cage fights are because it seems pretty low. Every apex card over the past year has been in the small cage so that’s like 20 events x 10 fights each plus all the tuf finale events over the years there should be way more fights than that
It's interesting. But you have to wonder if the smaller confines are the only factor. How much does the lack of crowd factor in? And the desire to prove something on these lockdown shows?
Would need specific data for fight island fights (30ft) vs apex fights to prove that (25ft). Would be a small sample size to work with tho
I mean yes obviously it forces engagement. It is worse for distance fighters like Wonderboy and Lyoto. I'm in favor of keeping bigger octogon and giving yellow card/point deductions for inactivity. We can still support higher diversity of styles and strategies while preventing stalling.
This, despite [Dana saying the smaller cage isn't better.](https://twitter.com/aaronbronsteter/status/1272026509507792897)
Not counting WEC fights?
Kumite Tournament didn't have a cage. Fighters still couldn't stay away from the wraith of Chong Li.
Put your foot in the tyre and swing boys and girls
It's why WEC was off the chain.
Bad data. Comparing time spanning 20+ years to several recent years would get you failed in any class.
WEC was great with the small cage
Of course it may not work for lumbering heavyweights
Crowd v no crowd
I'm all for a 10 ft Octagon, guaranteed more KOs ..
3 ft octagon. Both fighters always in punch and kick range.
I stg if the UFC uses this bullshit to make the smaller cage the norm, I’m gonna be pissed.
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