Posted by u/Ditch_the_DeepState 14 hours ago

Comex warehouse daily report ... 3.1 million oz out of registered and 1.1 million oz OUT OF THE VAULT. Vault operator MTB seems to be exiting comex.


I get it now. Some background ...

Manfra, Tordella and Brooks had bought 32.3 million oz of registered silver from Scotia Bank as they exited the monetary metals business. That transfer was reported on comex stocks report on March 2.

One of our fellow apes believed that MTB planned to withdrawal that silver from comex's warehouse. I assigned it to hear-say as he couldn't or wouldn't specify a source.

On today's report MTB moved 2.5 million oz out of registered and 0.6 million OUT OF THE VAULT.

(Public service announcement to the thousands of new apes arriving daily ... we always shout OUT OF THE VAULT. Now back to the thread ...)

So far, about 2 months after the acquisition, MTB has now removed 10.6 million oz out of registered and 6.1 million oz OUT OF THE VAULT. Our fellow ape's information may well be correct.

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https://preview.redd.it/v5jiqjud16x61.png?width=739&format=png&auto=webp&s=5cd9408e01027c93260e5e24dc246e2a519e4972

Everyone that has been following my thread closely will now jump up and say ... What about The Ratio?

If we assume that the remaining 23 million oz of registered silver in MTB's vault is headed for elsewhere, then it wouldn't be available for settling deliveries. I've discussed how the comex warehouse is stressed when viewed as a ratio of registered stocks to trailing 12 month deliveries. If we subtract MTB's registered volume and recalculate The Ratio we get the green line in the plot below.

https://preview.redd.it/ps846gkb16x61.png?width=968&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee14b7283e7541dd41ae95fb4c29f60fac11d456

While it doesn't seem to be much of a change visually, the new ratio after subtracting MTB would now be 3.1 months. You can see from the dotted line that the current Ratio is very near the all time low over the last 2 decades.

In my earlier posts I had discussed that when the ratio is under 3 months, there is often a substantial price increase over the next 12 months. If you believe MTB's silver is AWOL, then revisit this plot with a 3.1 month value. This would predict that the market is on a precipice of a price increase.

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https://preview.redd.it/ppin69co46x61.png?width=673&format=png&auto=webp&s=498de7529ec68a8c5498d038a5355156d0a67761

Fellow ape u/victor70 is familiar with this concept in proper economic terms calling it "extreme value theory". His supporting link is as follows:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme\_value\_theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_value_theory)

​

The warehouse situation gets more and more interesting.

Here is the link on the deep dig into The Ratio:

[https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/comments/n0stvq/comex\_warehouse\_stocks\_deliveries\_and\_prices\_how/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/comments/n0stvq/comex_warehouse_stocks_deliveries_and_prices_how/)

I highly encourage you to follow daily as I can't retell the entire story as things update.
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