These TIT for TAT warnings will continue for many years to come.
Forever preferable to all out war
>Fishing boats? What fishing boats? Ohh those fishing boats, those have always been there, in fact this is china.
Since ancient times TM
I'm pretty sure China interpreted this as "as long as it'd not an armed invasion, we won't do anything."
Oh, we are catching on their militia tactics.
The best the US can do now is to make it clear that any attack on Taiwan or the Philippines will provoke an American response. In the meantime gather allies to sign on to respond similarly if Taiwan is attacked. In addition work out problems in the Taiwanese army and transfer them Anti-Ship and Anti-Aircraft missiles so they can destroy any invasion force before it disembarks.
That’s the best way to avoid future war over Taiwan. Make it clear that any invasion would result in failure.
From a published China hawk author. The truth is that the Taiwanese themselves are more interested in playing politics than playing war. The pro-independence party fears strengthening the military will strengthen the pro-status quo party, and so, they will never strengthen the military in any meaningful way. Not only that, they cannot adopt a realistic strategy because that would require the populace buy into the idea of making massive sacrifices for even a chance that an outside power will intervene.
The populace will not buy into that idea. It would be political suicide. There can be no strengthening of Taiwan itself under a DPP regime.
On the flip side - the KMT themselves have next to no interest in fighting China. Their entire platform is to keep the status quo, gain more access to the mainland's markets, get richer.
So you have one party that is willing to fight, but not willing to support their military. On the other, you have a party that is supportive of the military, but not willing to fight.
You can see the paradox here.
The author's final paragraph:
>At this point an admission is due: it is easy for me to write all that. It is easy for me to judge, to pontificate on why some other country needs to militarize its society. The costs are not my own. I will not be called up for a year's conscription. I will not be paying higher taxes; it is not my culture at stake. But the call is now going out for America to commit itself to Taiwan's defense. **I cannot advocate sending American servicemen to die for the sake of a country that is not serious about defending itself.** Unless American diplomats deliver a similar ultimatum to the Taiwanese, I am not sure they ever will be.
And here is where I will insert a hypothesis of my own:
The Taiwanese elites are fully aware of this. And they're okay with this, because they're more concerned about holding onto their own power internally than they are concerned about a Chinese invasion.
Because despite the very widely publicized rhetoric, cross straits relations are actually pretty stable and have been for years.
China cannot hide the preparations for an invasion force. They cannot hide hundreds, thousands of ships and planes and everything else required to invade. So if we can't see it, the logical conclusion is they aren't planning to do it in the near future.
If I can reach this conclusion, then any high ranking government/party official will reach it as well.
Cold War 2.0
China thinks it can press buttons using soft power and gray area (not exactly armed conflict - plausible deniability like fishing fleet mobs) techniques to avoid the CCP’s existential threat, an actual fight. Their paper facade is being exposed and all that face is melting everywhere
Don't you go triggerin' mah obligations!
I wish i had an award to give. Made me laugh
Nuclear war will probably end this covid thing?
dont forget to wear a cloth mask for the fallout
The fix is easy, just give the Philippines and Taiwan a few nukes. MAD works.
I'm mostly just happy Duterte hasn't managed to sabotage the mutual defense treaty, tbh. Dude tried to kill the visiting forces agreement over the objections of the military, much of the public, and his own fucking party.
1. [Harvard paper on China and US War likelihood ](https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/war-between-china-and-united-states-isnt-inevitable-its-likely-excerpt-graham-allisons)
2. [dumbing down of the DOD report for the quick reader](https://taskandpurpose.com/analysis/china-military-power-report-pentagon/)
3. [DOD report on China](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF&ved=2ahUKEwjNscatge_vAhUSCc0KHTwrB1cQFjAAegQIAxAC&usg=AOvVaw04uk_0Z9s756UmotNzppCn&cshid=1617897457462)
This is the perfect way to state this.
Passive aggressive af
China: hit me bro, come on bro
Taiwan: touch me bro I dare you
USA: Fuckin breathe on me again bro I swear to god bro you don’t know who the fuck I am
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/08/21/armed-attack-will-trigger-our-obligations-us-warns-china-over-moves-on-philippines-taiwan) reduced by 67%. (I'm a bot)
> WASHINGTON - The United States on Wednesday warned China against what the Philippines and Taiwan see as increasingly aggressive moves, reminding Beijing of Washington's obligations to its partners.
> "An armed attack against the Philippines' armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific, including in the South China Sea, will trigger our obligations under the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty," State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters.
> More than 200 Chinese boats were first spotted on March 7 at Whitsun Reef, around 320 kilometers west of Palawan Island in the contested South China Sea, although many have since scattered across the Spratly Islands.
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/mmhihb/armed_attack_will_trigger_our_obligations_us/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~569162 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **China**^#1 **Taiwan**^#2 **State**^#3 **Island**^#4 **against**^#5
US and China should settle this with a rap battle
Why not a dance off?
Cold War - take 2. Both countries rely on each other too much to go to war ( thank god ) but they both want to assert control over the worlds resources. Nobody is in it for Taiwan or Philippines, just like nobody want to war in Middle East to help anyone or find weapons of mass destruction.
I'm not saying this will be the case but I'm not going to be surprised if WW3 starts because of a China conflict.
"And what are those obligations?"
"A very sternly worded letter! Signed by our president to boot!"
"Oh my! So drastic!"
China will attack Taiwan around same time Russia attacks Ukraine, calling it
That 100% starts WW3. It's like the invasion of Poland in WW2 that shows they cannot be reasoned with or satiated.
Yo I’ll sign up to fight with Taiwan - UK’er
they'll need it given that a recent poll said more than half of taiwanese would be unwilling to lol
I’m ready to fuckin fight, come outside @CCP
-Filipino currently living in Canada
Alright, Imma just go get my box of caps, Pip-Boy, and T51b Power Armor up in my attic.
It sucks but a war like that would unify the USA.
The fuck it will. If we go into that shit shooting from the hip while drunk on wild turkey and high on cocaine like Iraq in the 00's imma be real fuckin upset. There better be some UN multilateral classy shit happening but thats doubtful.
The Chinese military would lose a conventional war with the US in no uncertain terms. The problem would be the massive global economic fallout.
I mean yeah they would but they also have nukes that's the wild card it's why countries with nukes don't fight each other
So war with china wouldn't be conventional warfare
So no armed attack and they can continue doing what they are doing?
That's like a very simple playbook, someone blocks you, go around them. Someone wants you out? Just say no.
Simply wait until the opponent strikes first.
It's such a simple playbook but they would probably fuck it up somehow.
Blockade the flotilla and allow free passage out, but otherwise starve them out
The Chinese military has pretty much zero combat experience. I think it exists strictly for deterrence (unlike ours) and they're never going to cross a major line.
Do countries that have been passive for a while \_*always\_* stay that way? .. nope.
Your view is very optimistic, and at odds with historical norms. I would bet otherwise.
South East Asia really need to create Sea Pirate to steal Chinese Product and Terrorized China Militia Vessel and Steal there Naval War Ship and Study it. Then Create Digital Pirate to make Hard Ware Viruses to destroy China database and microchip for there warship, technology and drones.
if i were japan or south korea i will hire this Digital Pirate and Sea Pirate from South East Asia and start terrorized China Vessel Militia, Steal China Product and Naval War Ship then study it instead of boycotting them.
you don't say you can't because China already doing this to you, but you don't. Just look how they stole US drone design.
“Create sea pirate”. Bruh how old are you
Anybody else feel like china is the new Nazi Germany? They keep pushing, we keep warning them, with no real repercussions, and now they are imprisoning, killing and experimenting on the Uyghur’s. Seem familiar?
Man with all the sword rattling with taiwan pumping their chest out, then China "warning us" Against boycotting the olympics because chinas "civil rights record" as if they have a record of anything else but atrocities and genocide etc.
Lots of shit talking but really.. when it comes to war regarding countries like china, taiwan, and then nato and the US showing up.. it all leads down one path.. and thats nuclear deployment.
No one wants that to happen. Will it ever? Who knows. If China starts pulling a 1940s era germany.. well yeah.. shits gonna pop off.
Still think its pretty hilarious they threatened the US and pretty much the rest of the world "Better not boycott the olympics or else"
Or else what china. Fuck off.
FWIW China does not have MAD with NATO in terms of nukes. Only Russia has that. China has nukes and would do damage but its basically 100% guaranteed NATO countries would survive and China would not.
Do it. China's government needs to be slapped down hard.
The REAL war that no one is talking about..
That website is a piece of shit
Pretty sexy statement America.
And THAT is what an ally does. Fuck with them, fuck with us all.
Actually I take a different view. Taiwan is a case study in a breakaway nation state. How China reacts will be a litmus for future independence movements and claims.
As a bona fide armchair analyst, I'd say there are three major outcomes, but I won't hazard a guess as to the likelihoods:
1. China seizes Taiwan by force, US will make a lot of angry noises but ultimately refrains from engaging. Imagine a Chinese Crimea situation. An emboldened China cements its claims over the south China sea, to the detriment of other Southeast Asian countries.
2. More provocative actions are made by China, nine dashed line is expanded. US deploys additional carrier task forces to the South China Sea. China will make a lot of angry noises portending "interference in internal affairs". A tense stand off results, but nothing fundamentally changes.
3. China attempts to seize Taiwan by force, beaten back by US/Taiwan coalition. A bruised, belligerent China makes threats towards the US that it won't carry out. Regions such as Hong Kong and Tibetan Autonomous region see an increased clampdown and restriction of freedoms. Global trade likely slows with a wave of western sanctions against China.
Like I said, I'm not going to give likelihoods, but my money's on number 2.
The chip war. Arguably the most valuable production line in the world at the moment.
We are already letting the Authoritarian Genocidal Regime systematically eradicate the Uighur People. If Xinjiang was an industrial manufacturing powerhouse as Taiwan is, the world would have taken action in response to what is happening there.
By the time the armed attacks come, it will be too late to do anything. The policy of appeasement against China needs to end sooner rather than later, because the longer it goes on the bolder China will get and the more certain of their ability to win. History has demonstrated multiple times that the longer appeasement is pursued, the worse the end result is.
What the Philippines, or Vietnam, or anyone against China needs to do is send out a Coat Guard vessel and order the encroaching Chinese ships out of their waters. When the Chinese vessels inevitably refuse, the Coast Guard will attempt to board them, which of course will end badly. But that will give the country in question casus belli to request military assistance from the USA, and then the USA can send in a pack of submarines and wipe out whatever Chinese ships are present in the friendly nation's sovereign waters. Such a direct, decisive and aggressive action would bloody China's nose and force it to reevaluate its own expansionist policies.
Ahh, I see you are a fan of the "lets swing our dick and hope they dont try to kick us in the nuts" theory of international diplomacy
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